2026 Montana Sharptailed Grouse Hunting Outlook

I've driven past enough dry stock ponds this summer to know I'm not imagining it. Every trip out to scout has the same feel — cracked mud where there should be standing water, thin grass that should be knee-high by now, and that nagging question every Montana upland hunter asks themselves in July: what's the sharptail season actually going to look like this fall? Montana FWP hasn't published its official 2026 upland bird forecast yet — that usually drops in late August — so consider this my own read on the tea leaves. I'm cautiously optimistic, and it's built off the drought data, lek trends, and my own personal dirt road ramblings.

A Sixth Year of Drought, But Not All Bad News

This isn't a one-off dry spell. Montana is heading into its sixth consecutive year of drought, and that's the backdrop for everything else I'm about to talk about.

• Roughly 57% of the state is sitting in moderate to extreme drought, worst east of the Continental Divide
• Prairie potholes and stock ponds across eastern Montana are low
• Low-elevation snow melted almost a month early after a record-warm November through February
• Southwestern and southeastern river basins are tracking at only 60-80% of median streamflow
• Heavy rains in Western Montana during June boosted snowpack levels and river volume, but those same rains could be detrimental to broods

For a bird that depends on grassland moisture to produce the bugs and forbs chicks need, that's a tough starting point — but sharptails are a tougher bird than people give them credit for, and prairie grouse have pulled through dry stretches before without collapsing.

Spring Conditions Got Worse, Not Better

I was hoping the late data would show things stabilizing. It didn't. The most recent drought statement I could find, from early May, showed conditions actively worsening across the exact country sharptails call home.

• Central Montana is now classified in D3, or extreme drought
• Much of eastern Montana sits in D2 to D1, severe to moderate drought
• North-central, southern, and eastern areas were all flagged as "drought worsened" over the prior month
• Forecasters were calling for continued below-normal precipitation and warmer-than-normal temperatures through the nesting window

That timing matters more than almost anything else in this whole conversation. Cold and wet kills chicks, but so does bone-dry and hot — no bugs, no cover, no fuel for broods to grow fast enough to survive the fall. The one thing working in our favor: adult birds are far more drought-hardy than chicks, so a rough hatch doesn't automatically mean a rough season for hunters chasing grown birds.

Last Year's Lek Counts Give Me a Starting Point

Before I speculate on where this year lands, it's worth remembering where sharptails stood heading into this drought stretch. Last spring's lek surveys actually painted a decent picture:

• North-central and eastern Montana trended higher than 2024, though still below the long-term historical average
• Southeast Montana male lek attendance was well above average, a genuine bright spot
• Northeast Montana had normalized to near-average numbers after a few exceptional years

That's a population that walked into 2026 in solid shape, arguably its best starting point in a few years. The real question is how much of that momentum survives a second dry spring in a row — and I think more of it holds than you'd expect.

My Best Guess for This Fall

Here's where I land, for whatever my read is worth: I think southeast Montana, which had the strongest lek numbers and hasn't been hit quite as hard as the central part of the state, has a genuinely good shot at another solid season. Central Montana's move into extreme drought is the spot I'm watching most closely — that's where I'd expect the softest brood survival and fewer young birds in the bag. But adult birds are resilient, last year's carryover population was strong, and I don't expect a washout anywhere in the state, just leaner coveys and a season that rewards hunters willing to scout hard.

Worth watching on the side: FWP is in the final phase of its multi-year project relocating sharptails west of the Continental Divide, where the birds disappeared decades ago. You cannot legally pursue Sharptailed Grouse west of the divide, but it's a good reminder that habitat and management decisions made years ago still shape the bird numbers we see today.

What I'll Actually Do Differently This Fall

• Wait for FWP's official forecast in August before locking in travel plans
• Spent a lot of time driving to try out various locations early in the season
• Scout for the grassland blocks that held onto some moisture, not just the ones near a familiar lek
• Set my expectations around fewer young birds per covey
• Keep an eye on early check-station harvest numbers as the real-time gut check on my own guesswork

I'd rather go into opening weekend with realistic expectations than a rosy picture built on last year's numbers — but realistic doesn't mean bleak. Last spring's lek counts were encouraging, adult birds handle drought better than people think, and I'm optimistic there's still a good season out there for hunters willing to put in the scouting miles.

Written By: Carl Young

Sources:

• Montana Faces Sixth Year of Drought, Early Runoff Risk this Spring | Montana DNRC
• MT Drought Information Statement, May 5, 2026 | National Weather Service
• Upland Game Bird Season Outlook In Montana | Northern Plains Independent
• Sharp-tailed Grouse | Montana FWP
• Southeastern Montana FWP wraps sharp-tailed grouse capture season | Terry Tribune
• 'Mixed' season in some areas as FWP reports hunting numbers | Daily Montanan